Welcome Note:
Thanks for tuning into the third episode of The Advantage. A short, weekly note where I share what I am working on, something worth watching, a lesson from history, and one practical edge you can try right away.
This week I am trying something new. Instead of covering multiple ideas, the entire note is focused on one theme. Belief. How it shapes behavior, compounds over time, and quietly determines what is possible long before the evidence shows up.
If you know someone who may enjoy this, please feel free to forward it.
If you were forwarded this email and are enjoying it, you can subscribe here.
What I am Working On: A Blog Post
Most people think belief follows evidence. It rarely does. Belief usually comes first and quietly rewires behavior long before results appear. It changes how risk feels, how setbacks land, and how long you stay in the game when nothing is working yet. In this piece, I share a moment from childhood that reshaped how I saw myself, and a later moment when belief became a deliberate tool rather than an accident. The science explains why it works. The results explain why it matters.
The blog post is called Belief, one hell of a drug and it is a 7-minute read.
Worth Watching
Quick intro:
For this week's Worth Watching, I have to admit, I had already written and published this week’s blog piece on belief when I went looking for scientific support. Not to convince myself, but to help convince you all. That search led me to a 9-minute and 36-second clip from Modern Wisdom featuring Andrew Huberman and Chris Williamson. It’s short, precise, and grounded. They walk through real research on expectation effects, placebo responses, and how belief measurably shapes outcomes. They even reference The Secret (see my blog post), not to endorse it, but to explain why ideas like it persist. No mysticism. No hype. Just mechanism.
What I loved about it:
They don’t argue that belief magically creates results. They explain how belief changes inputs. Expectation influences how people perform, how their bodies respond, and how long they persist. Huberman is especially clear that disbelief is not neutral. If belief can bias the system toward effort and engagement, disbelief biases it toward withdrawal and conservation.
Here is my 20-second recap if you do not have the full 9 minutes and 36 seconds:
Expectation Effects Are Measurable: They discuss research showing that expectations alone can change real outcomes. In one example, people told they had a genetic advantage performed better than those who actually had the gene but were told they didn’t. Belief overrode biology.
The Placebo Effect Is Not “All in Your Head”: They explain that placebo effects produce real physiological changes. Symptoms, performance, and bodily responses can shift purely in response to expectation, even when no active intervention is present.
Information Changes Physical Responses: The video cites studies showing that beliefs about food or stress can alter measurable biological markers, such as hunger signals and physical reactions, despite identical underlying conditions.
Why Ideas Like The Secret Persist: They acknowledge that while The Secret overreaches, it points to something real. Expectations influence behavior, effort, and persistence. Over time, those behavior changes compound into meaningfully different outcomes.
Pro Move: You do not need to watch it. Put it on like a podcast and listen while you walk or drive.
Lesson From History: The Four-Minute Mile Was Never the Wall
What Happened: For years, the four-minute mile was treated like a biological limit. Coaches, doctors, and the public talked about it like a hard ceiling. In 1954, Roger Bannister ignored the consensus, trained with intent, and ran 3:59.4. Within weeks, other runners broke it too. What looked impossible didn’t just become possible. It became repeatable.
Insight behind it: Most “impossible” claims aren’t physics. They’re social permission. People don’t fail because the ceiling is real. They fail because they adopt the crowd’s definition of what’s allowed. Once one person proves a new standard, the myth collapses and the behavior changes everywhere.
Modern application: Stop negotiating with outside skeptics. Every minute spent trying to win belief is a minute not spent building proof. Set the standard you want to make normal, then run your company like it’s already true: targets, pace, hiring bar, quality bar. The world doesn’t reward convincing narratives. It rewards new normals. Execute until the doubt looks embarrassing.
Practical Edge: Creating emotional certainty
Why it works: High performers don’t visualize the future as a wish. They rehearse it as memory. Tony Robbins has taught this for decades, often describing it as creating emotional certainty before results arrive. The mechanism is simple. The brain does not strongly distinguish between vividly imagined experience and lived experience. When you repeatedly picture a future as if it has already happened, complete with emotion and sensory detail, you reduce uncertainty. The outcome stops feeling hypothetical. It starts feeling expected. And expected outcomes change behavior. You show up differently. You persist longer. You take setbacks less personally. This is not motivation. It is conditioning.
The data supports it:
Neuroscience research shows that mental rehearsal activates many of the same neural pathways involved in real execution. This is why athletes use visualization to improve performance and why placebo effects produce real physiological change. Expectation alters perception, effort, and stress response. When the brain treats a future as familiar rather than foreign, it conserves less energy resisting it. Over time, that shift compounds. Small behavioral changes stack. Consistency improves. Belief stops being a feeling and becomes a baseline.
How I use it:
I keep it short and boring on purpose. Five to ten minutes, most days. No candles. No scripts. I focus on the same few outcomes that matter and picture them as if they’ve already happened. The celebration. The normal day after. The calm. The certainty. The sense that this is just how things are now. I focus less on visuals and emotions. Confidence. Gratitude. When my mind wanders, I bring it back. That’s it.
The goal is to make the future feel familiar. As a byproduct, it creates a sense of calm and quiet confidence. I usually do it while I’m running or walking to the train early in the morning, when my energy and heart rate are already elevated.
Here is a three-minute video showing how Tony Robbins does this every morning. No reason to innovate when you can imitate.
Thanks for reading,
